Happy new year, readers. I’m senior reporter Phil Rosen.
Some congratulations are in order: You’ve officially emerged from the strange, gooey week in between Christmas and January 1st when nothing gets accomplished. Bravo.
Now it’s full speed ahead into 2023 — and the first Opening Bell newsletter of the year is a doozy.
I spent time scouring research notes and talking to experts over the last few weeks to see who had the boldest forecasts for the new year.
Let’s see what made the cut.
1. Over the last 12 months, volatility defined global markets. From the crypto winter to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the Federal Reserve’s aggressive monetary policy, investors struggled to find stability.
Yet, a slate of top banks and commentators are predicting more tumult ahead.
In 2022, the S&P 500 shed 20%, and strategists at Truist said it could fall further still as weak corporate earnings limit upside.
But the firm isn’t alone in its downbeat view. Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, and Deutsche Bank all forecasted that the key index could tank over 20% at some point this year.
Notably, Tesla stock became subject to a particularly grim prediction. Long-time bear Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research said the EV maker could drop as low as $23 per share, down from about $120 currently.
“They’re just a car company that has built too much capacity that they can’t sell,” he told CNBC in an interview.
As for the broader economy, Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood said it could slow down to such an extent that it resembles the crippling landscape from a century ago.
“The Fed raised rates in 1929 to squelch financial speculation and then, in 1930, Congress passed Smoot-Hawley, putting 50%+ tariffs on more than 20,000 goods and pushing the global economy into the Great Depression,” Wood warned. “If the Fed does not pivot, the set-up will be more like 1929.”
Meanwhile in commodities, consider gold. It’s currently hovering around $1,826 an ounce.
Saxo Bank analysts forecast that the precious metal could see another banner year and skyrocket to $3,000 an ounce.
In other news:
This undated photo provided on Nov. 27, 2022, by the North Korean government shows North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, center right, and his daughter, center left, with soldiers, pose for a photo, following the launch of what it says a Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile, at an unidentified location in North Korea.
2. US stock futures rise early Tuesday — an upbeat sign for the first trading day of 2023, after markets closed out last year with their worst losses since 2008. Investors are now bracing for the release of Fed minutes and the monthly jobs report later this week. Here are the latest market moves.
3. Earnings on deck: Pasofino Gold, Lotus Ventures, and more, all reporting.
4. These apps make real-estate investing simple and straightforward. Certain companies are offering buyers the chance to tap into the trend of “fractional ownership,” which means you can invest in shares of an income-producing property. See the list of 11 startups here, with some offering perks for as little as $5.
5. Fundstrat’s Tom Lee said stocks have as much as a 20% upside, but one threat looms especially large. If wages accelerate further, then it will pressure the Fed to maintain its aggressive policy. He shared the biggest risk to his bullish 2023 outlook.
6. The digital asset sector was riddled with fraud, swindles, and spectacular implosions. Some of the worst-performing tokens plummeted more than 90%, and one North Korean cyberattack resulted in a $625 million theft. A blockchain expert broke down why the new year could bring more crypto hacks and scams than ever before.
7. Sam Bankman-Fried is expected to enter a plea in the FTX fraud case on Tuesday. But odds are, a “sweetheart” deal will remain off the table, according to a former federal prosecutor. She explained why the Justice Department has a strong case.
8. Here is your complete guide to navigating the stock market. Strategists are reconsidering their approaches in 2023 and bracing for more market turbulence. Here are over 100 investing ideas from top fund managers and firms to kick off the new year.
9. Some people see the changing of the calendar as a time for a fresh start. These 25 towns and cities will pay you as much as $20,000 to move there. Just ask this 28-year-old crypto startup founder who was paid to relocate to Arkansas.
10. Putin faces a tough 2023 for Russian oil. Western sanctions and a price cap are continuing to weigh on Moscow’s export revenues and alter global flows. Three experts shared their take on the oil landscape ahead.
Edited by Jason Ma in Los Angeles and Hallam Bullock (@hallam_bullock) in London.